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NHL Futures: Bad News for the Capitals… Good News for Penguins

There is a large 134% gap between East leaders. The Tampa Bay Lightning lead with a 46.4 percent chance of winning the East and the Pittsburgh Penguins are at 19.8%. The difference between these teams is widening as the Penguins chances are down from 23.3 percent. As far as teams fighting for the final playoff spots go, there is a very small difference in projected points between the teams with the #8 best record and the team with the #9 best record. This is a very top heavy conference with just 4 teams with at least a four percent chance of winning it.

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The percentage difference at the top of the West is large at 60%. The Winnipeg Jets lead with a 32.5 percent chance of winning the West and the Calgary Flames are at 20.3%. The difference between these teams is widening as the Flames chances are down from 21.9 percent. Expect the playoff race to be tight. In simulations, the Wild average the #7 most wins and the Stars average the #9 most so the difference (3.45 points) between making and missing the playoffs is expected to be small. This is a top heavy conference with just 5 teams with at least a four percent chance of winning it.

Below are the latest NHL Futures for winning the Stanley Cup. At #2, the Jets have a 14 percent chance of winning the Stanley Cup, which is 20 percentage points behind the Lightning. The separation between the team with the #7 highest chances vs the #9 highest is 2.9 percentage points.

CHAMP CONTENDERS ODDS ODDS% SIM% TREND
Tampa Bay Lightning 9/2 18.2% 34.1%
Winnipeg Jets 8/1 11.1% 14.0% DOWN
Pittsburgh Penguins 10/1 9.1% 12.3%
Calgary Flames 8/1 11.1% 7.8%
San Jose Sharks 12/1 7.7% 7.8% DOWN
Washington Capitals 12/1 7.7% 7.8% DOWN
Toronto Maple Leafs 10/1 9.1% 6.0% DOWN
Nashville Predators 8/1 11.1% 3.2% DOWN
Las Vegas Golden Knights 8/1 11.1% 3.0% DOWN
Columbus Blue Jackets 16/1 5.9% 1.3% DOWN
Boston Bruins 12/1 7.7% 1.2% DOWN

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